Economic Impact of the Trans Adriatic Pipeline on Albania by Lorenc Gordani | Saturday, July 18, 2015AEI Updates July 2015Posted by Adv. Lorenc Gordani, PhD Sat, July 18, 2015 12:19:04
The Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) will transport natural gas from the Turkish-Greek border through South Eastern Europe to its tie-in point near Lecce in Italy. In regard, the Oxford Economics has estimate in a report called ”Economic Impact of the Trans Adriatic Pipeline on Albania” the economic impact of the proposed investment of the TAP on the Albanian economy.
Headline results are presented for three key metrics (contribution to GDP, headcount employment (including both part-time and full-time jobs) and tax revenue raised) and three channels of impact (direct activity by TAP AG, indirect activity stimulated by supply chain purchases, and activity induced by the spending of employees). Together with these data, provide a robust assessment of the economic impact of the planned development of the TAP on the Albanian economy, during both the construction and operational phases.
The results show that the direct impact of the construction phase of the project is likely to peak in 2017 when it will make an estimated value added contribution to GDP of €57 million and create 4,200 jobs (part-time and full-time). Further benefits will then accrue via domestic supply chain purchases of firms, which have been outsourced work directly by TAP AG. In regard it is expect that the indirect impact will peak in 2017, generating an estimated €39 million in GDP, activity that will support 4,400 jobs (part-time and full-time).
These figures rise to €110 million and 3,100 jobs (part-time and full-time) per year over the total construction horizon. In addition, the spending of direct and indirect employees will create economic benefits elsewhere. In total, it is estimate that this channel will generate an estimated further €106 million in GDP and 3,900 jobs (part-time and full-time) per year between 2015-18.
On top of this the project will generate persistent operational benefits. Over the 50-year operating horizon, we estimate that these will amount to a €740 million total contribution to GDP with this activity supporting 450 jobs (part-time and fulltime) per year on average. Therefore, in its own right, the project will generate significant benefits for the Albanian economy.
However, this report has also drawn attention to a number of possible “spillover” effects which, although impossible to quantify with the same precision, are likely to be even more significant. These include the value of associated road infrastructure investment, knowledge and technology spillovers to local firms, CSR initiatives undertaken by TAP AG and increased availability of natural gas to help meet the expected future increase in energy demand.